Afghanistan and Bangladesh walk out at the Sheikh Zayed Stadium in Abu Dhabi today in a match that could effectively end the UAE ODI tri-series as a contest. It is the 3rd ODI of the tri-series: Afghanistan vs Bangladesh, Wednesday 21 October, 5:00 PM PKT (5:30 PM IST, 4:00 PM GST). Win it, and Afghanistan are in the final on 23 October with a game to spare. Lose it, and Bangladesh suddenly believe.
I will be honest: on paper this looks one-sided. Afghanistan's last outing was a 158-run demolition of Zimbabwe. Bangladesh's last outing was a 99-run collapse to Zimbabwe. But these two sides have played each other 22 times in ODIs and won 11 each, so I am not writing Bangladesh off completely.
Afghanistan vs Bangladesh: what is at stake
Afghanistan have two points from one game with a healthy net run rate after routing Zimbabwe for 136. Bangladesh have nothing — they were bowled out for 172 by Zimbabwe on Saturday. So the equation is simple:
- Afghanistan win: they qualify for the 23 October final, and the last league game becomes a dress rehearsal.
- Bangladesh win: they stay alive and drag the final spot down to the last game — and given their net run rate took a 99-run beating, they will probably need to win well.
Form guide: both teams' last games
Afghanistan posted 294 against Zimbabwe on 19 October. Sediqullah Atal made a composed 102 off 110 balls, Ibrahim Zadran 90 off 96, and then Rashid Khan ran through the chase with 4 for 17 — Zimbabwe were skittled for 136. Fazalhaq Farooqi took 2 for 15. That is four straight ODI wins for Afghanistan now, all of them convincing.
Bangladesh collapsed against Zimbabwe on 17 October. Chasing 272, they were 24 for 3 down almost immediately — Taskin Ahmed's new-ball spell of 3 for 44 was the one bright spot — and folded for 172 in 33.4 overs. Tanzid Hasan's 46 was the top score; Brad Evans took 4 for 45. The middle order simply did not turn up.
Afghanistan vs Bangladesh head to head in ODIs
Here is the comparison the fixture demands, because it is genuinely unusual:
- ODIs played: 22 — Afghanistan won 11, Bangladesh won 11, no results.
- First meeting: March 2014, Asia Cup in Fatullah.
- Last ODI series: October 2025, in this very stadium — Afghanistan swept it 3-0 (by 5 wickets, 81 runs and 200 runs). Bilal Sami took a five-wicket haul in the final game; Ibrahim Zadran was player of the series.
So the long history says 11-11, but the recent history says Afghanistan own this fixture right now. Rashid Khan's ODI record against Bangladesh is the standout: 43 wickets at under 20, including 11 in that 2025 series with a five-for.
Key battles
- Rashid Khan vs Bangladesh's middle order: the numbers above say it all. If Bangladesh's top order gives him anything to bowl at in the middle overs, this could get ugly.
- Ibrahim Zadran vs Taskin Ahmed and Mustafizur Rahman: Ibrahim is in red-hot form — 90 against Zimbabwe on Monday, player of the series in 2025. Bangladesh need early wickets; only Taskin looked like taking them on Saturday.
- Litton Das's captaincy under pressure: this is Bangladesh's first real final-ball test under Litton in this format, and his side needs a response after being outplayed in every department on Saturday.
Pitch report and conditions, Abu Dhabi
All three games are at the Sheikh Zayed Stadium. The pattern from this tri-series so far: the pitch starts true and then slows. Batting second has been hard — Zimbabwe lost 10 wickets for 172 chasing, Zimbabwe lost 10 for 136 chasing. The team winning the toss will almost certainly bat first and let spin take over in the second innings. This suits Afghanistan's attack — Rashid, AM Ghazanfar, Nabi — far more than Bangladesh's.
Afghanistan vs Bangladesh playing 11 (probable)
Teams were not announced at the time of writing, so this is my probable XI based on the last games:
Afghanistan: Ibrahim Zadran, Rahmanullah Gurbaz (wk), Sediqullah Atal, Rahmat Shah (c), Hashmatullah Shahidi, Azmatullah Omarzai, Mohammad Nabi, Rashid Khan, AM Ghazanfar, Zia Ur Rahman Sharifi, Fazalhaq Farooqi.
Bangladesh: Litton Das (c, wk), Tanzid Hasan Tamim, Soumya Sarkar, Najmul Hossain Shanto, Towhid Hridoy, Mosaddek Hossain, Saif Hassan, Rishad Hossain, Shoriful Islam, Taskin Ahmed, Mustafizur Rahman. Nurul Hasan kept wicket in the opener and is an option if Bangladesh shuffle the keeping duties.
My prediction: who will win Afghanistan vs Bangladesh?
I am going with Afghanistan, by 5 wickets or 40+ runs. The reasoning is simple: their batting has two men in form at the top (Atal, Ibrahim), their new ball is working (Farooqi), and Rashid on a slowing Abu Dhabi pitch against a fragile Bangladesh middle order is the single biggest mismatch of the series. Bangladesh's only route is if Taskin repeats his Saturday new-ball magic and removes two of the top three inside the powerplay — but even then, Afghanistan's depth has answered every question so far.
If Bangladesh somehow pull this off, it will be the result of the tri-series and I will happily say I got it wrong.
Afghanistan vs Bangladesh 3rd ODI: FAQs
When is Afghanistan vs Bangladesh 3rd ODI?
Today, Wednesday 21 October 2026. Start time 5:00 PM PKT (5:30 PM IST).
Where is the match being played?
Sheikh Zayed Stadium, Abu Dhabi. It is a day-night game.
What is the Afghanistan vs Bangladesh ODI head to head?
22 ODIs: 11 wins each, no no-results. Afghanistan won the last series 3-0 in October 2025.
What happens if Afghanistan win?
They reach the final on 23 October. If Bangladesh win, the final spot goes down to the last league games on net run rate.
Read more: my preview of Afghanistan's 2nd ODI against Zimbabwe and how Zimbabwe stunned Bangladesh by 99 runs in the tri-series opener.
Images: Wikimedia Commons (Rashid Khan; Liton Das; Sheikh Zayed Stadium, Abu Dhabi).
Rashid Khan took 4 for 17 against Zimbabwe and has 43 ODI wickets against Bangladesh. (Wikimedia Commons)
Litton Das leads Bangladesh in a must-win game after the 99-run loss to Zimbabwe. (Wikimedia Commons)
Sheikh Zayed Stadium, Abu Dhabi — the pitch slows in the second innings and favours spin. (Wikimedia Commons)